First, let me start out by saying I feel privileged to have watched history last night. I think it was important for our country that Obama won by such a large margin both in the Electoral College and in the popular vote. The past two elections were so close, coming down to one State both times, that it left a lot of people bitter and divided. There are no lawsuits, no protests, just…something much different today. Last night, hundreds of students from the Washington area emerged upon the White House at 1 am and chanted "Obama!" over and over. I wish I could have been there or in Chicago and I can only imagine how Bush must have felt trying to sleep through the crowd outside as the secret service simply smiled all night and took pictures of the crowd with their camera phones not out of security but out of joy.
The expectations are high for Obama, perhaps too high. It will be interesting to see what change he will be able to bring and how fast given that Democrats don't have a filibuster proof majority and that many Democrats are centrists.
I think McCain was the best choice Republicans could have made for their pick to run in this now clearly Democratic environment. However, McCain did not run as the 2000 McCain, but as the more traditional, pandering to the right Republican nominee. He is a good man, but is with the wrong party as evidenced last night in his gracious concession speech in which he seemed annoyed and embarrassed by the booing crowd. In contrast, the huge Democratic crowd in Chicago applauded McCain. The mismatch between McCain and his crumbling party ultimately led to his major mistakes:
1. The Republicans assumed this election would be like the rest: red states stay red, blue states stay blue and try to gain a couple to win. This allowed Obama to have a 3 month lead in some places virtually unchallenged with ads and message. The result? Obama wins Florida, Virginia, Colorado, and probably North Carolina. McCain was forced to spend final and vital resources defending these states, while trying to stay offensive in Pennsylvania.
2. McCain needed money to compete so he had to please the conservative base by selecting Sarah Palin. This excited conservatives, but McCain was kidding himself if he thought he was the conservative candidate. He was able to raise more money, but it was not enough and it was too late in the election for him to be getting out a message.
3. He did not distance himself enough from President Bush. He accepted Bush's endorsement early on, but tried to down play it late in the game. McCain could have tried to run more like an independent candidate, acknowledging his party's failures and distancing himself from people in his party. I think this would have won him more votes, but he probably would not have raised enough money because his base would have sat this one out and McCain's campaign was not as technologically advanced as Obamas.
4. This is not to say that money wins elections, it does not. Obama's fundraising strength is not just in the shear amount of money, but in the amount of small time, first time single donors his campaign attracted. He used the internet in the internet age. Donations and information was easy to get online, in addition to text messages, email, etc.
5. McCain never had a consistent message and appeared impulsive. No incumbent candidate has never won the presidency when the Consumer Confidence Index is negative before the election, but McCain might have had a chance if:
A. He would have recognized the failing economy before hand and selected an economically minded running mate.
B. Not have run off to Washington in the middle of the campaign just to be there to see the first plan fail to pass.His 'country first' motto was brought into question with the pick of Sarah Palin, which combined with the appointment of almost all former lobbyists as his advisors caused me to lose trust in him.
In the end, I am glad the 20 month campaign is over. The world is already responding positively to America's choice and that is a good sign. Obama's wins across the entire country make him a leader of unity, representative of us all in my mind. There will still be some who oppose him, but Obama has built his reputation and success on working with opponents. He is probably the most skilled politician we will see in our lifetime. He has literally redrawn the electoral map that has dominated our country for decades, in addition to winning against two of our most respected and talented politicians (Clinton and McCain).
He deserves it. Washington can work quickly with the right leadership; it is a myth that it is a slow town. The first 6 months of Obama's administration will set the tone and pace for the rest of his time in office. Will huge changes occur immediately? Probably not, but I suspect the "little things" like torturing people, hiring prosecutors politically, and generally pissing off the world are already off the table.
Two main things to look for in the first 6 months:
1) Does Obama take a long vacation in the first 6 months?
2) Does Obama appoint any Republicans in key positions?
I am proud, excited, and guarding my expectations for the work ahead.
